Saturday, October 2, 2010

FINDING THE ACHILLES' HEEL OF CHINA

B.RAMAN


The war of nerves and words between China and Japan over the ownership of the Senkaku Islands (the Chinese call it the Diayou Islands) in the East China Sea continues despite the Japanese release of the Captain of a Chinese fishing trawler whom they had arrested on September 8,2010, for criminal trespass into the Japanese territorial waters around the Japanese-administered islands.


2.The Chinese are yet to release one of the four Japanese employees of a construction company whom they had arrested apparently in retaliation for the Japanese arrest of the fishing trawler's Captain. The abrupt Japanese release of the Captain after having initially given evidence of its intention to prosecute him followed the Chinese arrest of the four Japanese employees.


3.Rightly or wrongly, this has given rise to a perception in Japan that its Prime Minister Naoto Kan has let himself be bullied by China. The whole incident as it has been handled by the Kan Government has been seen by sections of the media and public in Japan as a humiliation of Japan by China.As if this perceived humiliation is not enough, Bejing is insisting that before the relations between the two countries could be normalised, Japan should apologise for the "illegal" arrest of the Captain and for his "wrongful" detention.If Mr.Kan concedes this demand, it would amount to his admitting indirectly that the group of islands is Chinese and not Japanese territory.


4.There is disappointment in Japan over the failure of the Barack Obama Administration to come out strongly in support of Japan in this war of nerves with China. The US recognises the Senkaku as Japanese-administered since 1972, but has not recognised Japanese claims of sovereignty over the Islands. At the same time, there is no denial of the interpretation that the protective provisions of the US-Japan security treaty cover the Senkaku islands too.


5. The Japanese were hoping that the US would come out as strongly against Chinese machinations in respect of the East China Sea islands as Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the Secretary of State, did in respect of the South China Sea islands during her intervention at a meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Hanoi earlier this year. Surprisingly and inexplicably, the US has contented itself with statements merely calling for a peaceful resolution of the Sino-Japanese differences.


6. Attention has not been drawn by analysts to the blatant double standards in Chinese diplomacy as seen from its policy towards India on the Kashmir issue and its policy towards Japan on the Senkaku issue. The Chinese have been saying that the recent changes in favour of Pakistan in their stance on Kashmir is an individual issue which should not be allowed to have an impact on the over-all relations between India and China. But, they have refused to treat the arrest of the Chinese Captain by the Japanese as an individual issue which should not affect the over-all Sino-Japanese relations.


7. They have made the entire Sino-Japanese relations a hostage to this single issue. They have allegedly stopped the export of rare earth elements to Japan on which the Japanese high-tech industries are dependent. They have suspended high-level contacts between the two countries. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao declined to meet the Japanese Prime Minister when the two were in New York last week for the UN General Assembly session. Beijing has discouraged its tourists from visiting Japan. It has cancelled the visit of Japanese delegations to the Shanghai Expo.


8. The only factors that have acted as a check on the Chinese bullying of Japan are Beijing's uncertainty over the implications of the US-Japan security treaty in so far as the Senkaku group is concerned and fears that if Beijing continued to over-react it might provide fresh oxygen to Japanese militarists.


9. In a statement before the Japanese Parliament on October 1, Prime Minister Kan said: "The rise of China has been remarkable in recent years,but we are concerned about its strengthening defence capabilities without transparency and accelerating maritime activities spanning from the Indian Ocean to the East China Sea. The Senkaku islands are an integral part of our country, historically and under international law.Good relations with China - Japan's largest trading partner - are vital to both countries, but China must act as a responsible member of the international community. Japan needed to adopt more active foreign and defence policies to deal with uncertainty and instability that exist in areas surrounding our country."


10. His statement followed remarks by China's Foreign Ministry spokesman the previous day urging Japan to "stop making irresponsible remarks and safeguard the larger interests of bilateral relations with concrete actions". The spokesman, Jiang Yu, said: "We are willing to resolve our disputes through friendly negotiations but the Chinese Government's and people's will and resolve are unswerving on issues involving China's territorial integrity and sovereignty."


11. The regional "uncertainty and instability" consequent upon China's over-assertiveness in matters relating to territorial disputes should be of concern not only to Japan, but also to India, Vietnam and the Philippines. India's concerns over its long-pending border dispute with China and over the stepped-up Chinese support to Pakistan in the nuclear field and in the construction of road and rail infrastructure in Pakistan-occupied Gilgit-Baltistan are legitimate. So are the concerns of Vietnam and the Philippines regarding the Chinese intentions and capabilities in the South China Sea.


12. The perceptions and concerns of India, Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines relating to China should bring them together to discuss among themselves as to how to counter the over-assertiveness of China without creating a confrontational situation and without damaging the positive dimensions of their respective bilateral relations with China. Their discussions among themselves should cover the strong as well as the weak points of China--- the strong points against which they should protect themselves and the weak points which they could exploit.


13. An editorial carried by the Chinese Communist Party controlled "Global Times" on September 21 under the title "Finding the Achilles' Heel of Japan" (annexed below) said: "Provoking China comes with a heavy price tag. Finding Japan's soft spot will help end its hostile policies against China during its rise."


14. There is a need for India, Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines to find the soft spots of China. Pakistan could turn out to be one such soft spot. India knows Gilgit-Baltistan and the Chinese-controlled Xinjiang better than the Chinese. North Korea, where a new leadership is emerging, could be another. The Japanese know North Korea as well as the Chinese do. India, Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines should make overtures to the new, emerging leadership in North Korea and help it to free North Korea of its linkages with China and develop its prosperity. This is the time for India to seriously consider establishing contacts with the new North Korean leadership and invite Kim Jong-Un, the heir-apparent to Kim Jong-il, to India.


15. New Delhi's Look East policy as it has evolved till now has over-focussed on our relations with the ASEAN. The relations with the ASEAN countries continue to be important. It is time to give an East Asia dimension too to our Look East policy. (3-10-10)


( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

ANNEXURE

Editorial carried by the "Global Times" on September 21,2010

FINDING THE ACHILLES' HEEL OF JAPAN

When a diplomatic conflict breaks out between China and Japan, China often lacks sophisticated countermeasures to use against its neighbor. Strong public sentiment and vague counteractions may cost more with less effect.

Bilateral relations between the two countries have plunged recently due to Japan's diplomatic recklessness. It is still unknown how this latest conflict over the Diaoyu Islands will end.

China needs a more focused effort in studying and analyzing Japan, which has inflicted great suffering upon China throughout history. For centuries, Japan has put China under the microscope to study its strong and weak spots, but China has not found the Achilles' heel of Japan.

China's Japan policy has been based on friendly ties stressing warm public communication since the normalization of diplomatic relations between the two in 1972. But the public emotions of Japanese society toward China have altered significantly recently. It seems that conflicts originating from Japan are continually escalating. China's responses mostly only deal with short-term solutions or resolutions.

Now is the time to seriously examine Japan. It should be apparent by now that China will be forced to endure long-term conflicts with Japan, and emphasizing only friendly relations is not prudent. In addition, China needs to be certain of Japan's soft spots for clearly targeted reactions.

The pain has to be piercing. Japanese politicians need to understand the consequences - votes will be lost, and Japanese companies have to be aware of the loss of business involved. Japanese citizens will feel the burden due to the downturn in the economy. China's domestic law, business regulations and consumers can all be maneuvered.

There is a lingering question in China: Why do hawkish Japanese politicians who are obviously against China emerge one after another without China provoking Japan? The claim that the situation is a result of the Japanese becoming disillusioned over China's fast growth is not a convincing argument. Deeper explanations need to be explored and key organizations and figures have to be investigated.

China needs to think very hard about the motives of Japan and its government, and learn to counter Japan's moves with effective diplomatic measures. It is time now to include strong countermeasures into China's foreign policy toward Japan.

Provoking China comes with a heavy price tag. Finding Japan's soft spot will help end its hostile policies against China during its rise.

5 comments:

ambi said...

I can understand Japanese people’s anger & frustration. China was the real culprit who invited this confrontation. It’s China who shld have relented. Rather, its Japan, who had to bow down. We are living in a different world now it seems. If India is forced tomorrow to send the lone survivor of 26-11 attack Amir Ajmal Kasab back to Pakistan, I can imagine the anger here.

I wonder why restrain, tolerance & asking for peace is considered as weakness & cowardness, while, bullying & intolerance is considered as a symbol of power. When the same Japan in II world war, with the same bullying samurai mindset was disturbing world peace & bulldozing China, China surrendered to them. Now that Japan has turned itself as a civilised state, & trying to forget the same Samurai culture, it is being harassed. How things change with the time?

Despite its many problems Japan is capable enough to maintain its own interests. Whenever I see Indo Pak relations, or now this current China-Japan confrontation, it reminds me of Priyadarshan’s ‘Viraasat’. Damn good movie! Its hero, (Anil Kapoor) son of the village elder; who after completing his studies in US has just returned to his native village. Here he & his family are constantly harassed & threatened by his uncle’s son for land. Anil Kapoor repeatedly pleads to that irritating brother (milind gunaji), ‘why are you bothering me & my family? You have your family & land & I ve mine. So, why this confrontation? Let’s live in peace as a united family.’ Of course it doesn’t have any effect on his brother. Finally Anil Kapoor warns him, ‘Though I am living abroad, & I am civilised person outside, in the end I am from this same village. I know how things move here. Don’t forget I have same blood in me like you. I have same beast in me like you. Just that, unlike you, its sleeping in me. Don’t provoke that beast, you want survive me then.’

Now that Japan has changed its track & has become a civilised state, PRC is unnecessarily provoking that Samurai beast in Japan.

nri2008 said...

An excellent and perceptive analysis as usual Ramanji. However does Govt of INdia have the essential political and diplomatic wisdom and foresight to embark on astute course of action suggested by you is the Trillion Dollar question!

Warm Regards

Ram

Collins said...

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ravinder said...

Ramanji,
Will it actually work. I mean using the Achilles heel of China against them. See it is a country with a big population that can sport every kind of thought pattern and strengths. Just one or two weaknesses may not be enough. What we need is a total strategy.

What you are suggesting may be a start though...in that direction

@ambi, I strongly doubt if Japs will ever find their ground again Samurai traditions notwithstanding. If Samurai traditions were so strong why would they allow themselves to fall to the level of a protectorate. Hell even Viets got better gumption.

ambi said...

Hi ravinderji, all wellwishers of PRC must be praying that I am wrong & you are right. Because if by chance I am right China is in big trouble in future.

When ever I used to see Pakistan’s attitude towards India, I use to wonder on what basis they are showing so much attitude to us. Is their something which we don’t know about them? But in last few months the ground realities are there to see for all.

Same with PRC. I always wonder on what basis PRC is bullying on its neighbours. Is there something that we don’t know & we should know? Because as per our idea, there shld be no reason for China to show so much smugness. 2012 is not that far. We ll learn ground realities soon. Delhi ab door nahin.