Tuesday, August 31, 2010



At a time when there is already concern over the increasing assertiveness of the Chinese Navy in the South and East China Seas, the first port call by two ships of the Chinese Navy in Myanmar while on their way back from anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf has aroused considerable interest and some concern in the neighbouring countries.

2.China has a long history of army-army cooperation with Myanmar, including a militaery supply relationship. It has also been helping Myanmar in building an oil/gas terminal at Kyaukpu off the Arakan coast. The new port, when completed, will place three modern ports at the disposal of China----the other two being Gwadar on the Mekran coast of Pakistan and Hambantota in Sri Lanka. The Bangladesh Government is interested in securing Chinese assistance for the modernisation of the Chittagong port.

3.Till now, the Chinese authorities and the Governments of Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Bangladesh have projected these ports as purely commercial ventures with no naval significance. Only Pakistan makes no secret of the significance of Gwadar for the navies of Pakistan and China. It hopes that a modern naval base at Gwadar will give the Pakistan Navy a strategic depth by reducing its dependence on the Karachi port, which is vulnerable to attacks by the Indian Navy. It is prepared to offer the proposed naval base at Gwadar to the Chinese Navy for use by its naval ships visiting the Indian Ocean and the Gulf.

4.Some retired Chinese naval officers are of the view that a viable Indian Ocean fleet for their navy would require forward bases in this area. How to acquire such bases without adding to the alarm of the US, which is already talking of the Chinese assertiveness in the Indian Ocean area as Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman, US Joint Chiefs of Staff, did during his recent visit to New Delhi? The Chinese have not yet openly reacted to his comments though they reacted quickly and vehemently to the comments of Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, on the Chinese naval assertiveness in the South China Sea at the recent Asean Regional Forum meeting at Hanoi.

5.The US view of the Chinese intentions in the Indian Ocean are still confused despite the lucid remarks of Admiral Mullen. While he was clear and forthcoming, Ms.Michele Flournoy, the US Under-Secretary of Defence, was not that forthcoming during her visit to Delhi in the third week of August to prepare for the forthcoming visit of Shri A.K.Antony, our Defence Minister, to the US. She avoided any reference to the Chinese activities in the Indian Ocean area.

6.Her remarks could be interpreted as discouraging any Indian expectation of major Indo-US naval co-operation against Chinese forays into the Indian Ocean as one of the possible results of the forthcoming visit of President Barack Obama to New Delhi coming November. She reportedly told the Indian media on August 10: " There has been tremendous progress in the number of joint exercises, but the need is to make them meaningful so that they are reflective of the real world situation....The exercises must prepare both sides to jointly undertake counter-piracy operations, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. We also have to respond to maritime security and freedom of navigation against those contesting the accepted rules of the world. We will have to work to prevent that. We have to be prepared in terms of capability."

7.The visit of the two Chinese naval ships to the Yangon port in Myanmar must have been under preparation for some time and could not have been the Chinese way of reacting to the pronouncements of US officials while visiting New Delhi. At the same time, the port call in Myanmar proclaims openly the beginning of Chinese activism, if not assertiveness, in the Indian Ocean region.

8.The Chinese have taken note of the speculation in India and elsewhere as to what the port visit portends. Is it an innocent halt while returning home from the Gulf or does it have a strategic significance? Is it meant to convey a message to the US and the Indian Navies that China has core interests in the Indian Ocean too as it has in the South and East China Seas? This subject should figure in the agenda of the forthcoming talks with Mr.Obama when he visits New Delhi.

9.To calm any frenzied speculation over the Chinese intention, the Party-owned "Global Times", in an editoriial on September 1, has proposed a naval trust-building exercise among the Asian navies. The text of the editorial is annexed.

10.This may pleae be read in continuation of my article dated July 24,2010, titled MONITORING CHINA'S NAVAL ASSERTIVENESS at
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers40%5Cpaper3944.html and article dated August 10,2010, titled "CHINA: A Wake-Up Call for Vietnam & India" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers40%5Cpaper3974.html (1-9-10)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

ANNEXURE ( Editorial carried by the "Global Times" on September 1,2010)

Asian navies should trust each other

The Chinese navy's first-ever port call to Myanmar on Sunday (August 29) has triggered plenty of noise and speculation in India.

The Indian press aligns Myanmar with Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, where they believe China has helped build port facilities, and conclude that the neighboring giant is aimed at building a "string of pearls" for greater space on the Indian Ocean - long considered India's backyard.

Just like the strong reactions from Japan when China's warships made their way through the first island chain into the Pacific Ocean, every step the fledgling power makes to test its wings has been met with suspicion.

The biggest fear, as some foreign strategists asserted, is that China may flex its muscles from one ocean to another, and eventually become a frightening superpower cruising around the world's blue waters.

What a grand picture these strategists are drawing. Some amateur military "experts" will jump into the air over the slightest mention of such an ambitious plan.

The reality of the situation is much less exciting than their fantasies.

Only two escort ships back from their missions to protect Chinese trade fleets from piracy in waters off the Somali coast visited Myanmar. On the way home, the escort group made port calls to Egypt, Italy and Greece.

Conspiracy theories aside, China's navy has been growing stronger over the past few years, and has been reaching places it has never reached before.

Not surprisingly, Japan, South Korea, India and some Southeast Asian countries are concerned.

These countries should be more concerned about the US, the only real super power, which could cause trouble by stoking feelings of discontent.

China has to pay attention to the concerns arising naturally from its neighbors in Asia.

A stronger Chinese navy does not necessarily mean a threat, but an additional peace-keeping force, as is shown in the gulf of Aden.

The fear aimed at the Chinese navy is a dangerous result of neighboring countries' suspicion and mistrust over China's rise.

The process to resolve this mistrust is the same process to resolve the "China threat" theory.

A lack of communications has built up this mistrust and misjudgment.

The Chinese government may try to establish a communication mechanism between navies in Asia.

Only through the better exchange of ideas and explanations can the other countries fully understand the Chinese navy's willingness to cooperate instead of compete.

Asia's navies should not repeat history in the Atlantic Ocean where world powers tried to use their naval powers to conquer each other.


ambi said...

sir ji depending on US or others wont take us anywhere. how does it matter whether others are there or not. we shld have courage to stand alone. with u or without u, this shld be our motto. as rabindranath says 'tomi ekla chalo re.' we seem to have forget it.

ambi said...

The Chinese navy visit to Myanmar may be an innocuous trip as Chinese Paper claims, but what Chinese authorities need to understand is that other countries especially India will be surely concerned.

The reason is that as India has seen in recent visa row of top Indian Army officer from Kashmir, what we fear is that effective break down of law & order & command & control structure, & thus anarchy in PRC. CPC is effectively loosing control on the system, we fear & any mid level rogue bureaucrat can take such a big decision of denying a visa to top army officer from other country. One thing seems clear that the denial of visa to Lt. Gen Jamwal was taken without consent of higher authorities. So has CPC taken strict action agst that rogue bureaucrat? I think it shld, to assure other countries that CPC is still in control. Or else how can it explain this visa row to India.

India don’t have much of a problem with Chinese Navy ships visiting Myanmar. I think, what Indians are concerned more with is that was proper permission taken by captains of those ships for that trip from concerned higher authorities? Or they went on that trip of their own? Our concerned are genuine & CPC shld answer these question.

Recently we learned that some 7000-11000 PLA soldiers are in POK, so are they with permission of CPC or they have turned rogue & acting of their own?

We have seen what happens when Law & order & command & control breaks down in our neighbour Pakistan, we do not wish to see same trouble with our other giant neighbour. & thus the concern.